We closed last week on a very positive note. However, we didn’t get the sweep of 28k yet and because of that I am not that positive yet on the long-term trajectory having bottomed out. Furthermore, I unfortunately didn’t get my entry trigger as price went hard on the upside, so I missed the boat on my setup, but no trigger, no entry. At least I stuck to my plan.
What would make sense for the next couple months is:
complacency shoulder (a lower high on the monthly) > sweep of 28k into .. (17k potentially) > range-bound at depressive lows (reaccumulation) > break-out above range > toward a fresh ATH
That doesn’t have to happen, naturally, so I will let price tell me at trading range edges where to next. Every yearly, quarterly, monthly or weekly candle (etc.) can be seen as range. A high, low, open and close. I use the high and low to mark the top and bottom of the range, and the open as a point of S/R. But all these are relative to how much confluence they are showing in price.
On the monthly chart you can see that the the range marked out was the first week that confidently closed below the April’s monthly candle low and turning market structure on the monthly bearish. April’s low also marks the midway point between the open and close of May’s bearish monthly candle. Confluence.
If you are ever drawing a range on the chart, make sure that there is confluence through all timeframes with the levels it indicates. The more confluence, the stronger the range might be as an indication. Let price tell you what the range is. While it’s not a perfect art, it sure as hell helps to have a directional bias.
Now, into the money making area. Setups.
If we see $41k broken and held, I would look for a long into $47k April’s low and invalidation of a break back into the range below $41k.
If we fail that $41k level after a sweep and close back into the range on the daily timeframe, I would look for shorting setups back into mid-range or ideally into the $28k area if I see underlying weakness. To me the June high level is the make-or-break and I’ll be watching when it approaches. A third alternative is that we fail to hit the June high at $41k and move back into internal-range liquidity.
Internal-to-external range liquidity ABC’s. Lol, I don’t mean to spam terminology but that’s what I’m aiming for. My direction bias depends on what happens with Bitcoin as the underlying asset and the confirmations we get around $2,400 as that is the liquidity that hangs around mid-range of the June monthly candle.
Hold $2,400 and I will look for a long into 2900 and beyond if we see strength there. Sweep $2,400 and break down and I will look for a short back into quarter-range liquidity and range low. Fail to tap $2,400 today (which I don’t expect at this moment) and I would look for lower support levels to long on back into $2,400, my least appealing setup at this moment so I might also not. We’ll see. Next post I’ll include the ETHBTC chart as well.
That’s all for today. I might post again this week to update on the status of the trades and market. Love y’all. Enjoy the summer!
Hope you found value,
UPDATE 28–07: I’ve gone long on ETH at $2,300± with $2,100± hard stop, weakness around $2,200 as soft stop. Targeting $2,600 quarter-range and $2,900 June high. Will flip short if we fail into $2,100 targeting $1,700.