Coffee & Markets | #8

Cyril Cox
4 min readAug 31, 2021

Morning.

Kickin’ off! A couple charts I want to cover setups on.

Bitcoin

BTCUSD 4h
BTCUSD 1h

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin sweep toward $45,190. I would be interested in a long on bitcoin if it weren’t in a consolidation range. However, I resume to look for setups once we get out, either side.

For the upside, I would look to buy a 50k break-out with confirmation, looking for 55k, 60k and the all-time high (conservatively) as targets, with invalidation of a break back below 50k into the range-bound environment. If that were to happen, I would consider shorting, but again, on confirmation.

Also, I drew what a confirmation looks like at a lower time-frame (4h, 1h):

source: me

For the downside, won’t lie, I don’t see many good setups for my style of trading. It’s too tight a range, folks. One could short from 45k down into 42–40k range, but it’s not worth it in my eyes.

What I choose to do if Bitcoin goes down: long alts, since if some are going up while BTC, you’ll be outperforming bitcoin double (if you get it right).

Ethereum

ETHUSD 1h

I have a wonderful setup for Ethereum for y’all, if it plays out.

Ethereum looks like a strong break-out here, and with a clean consolidation range it may just hold.

If it fails, we may see the June high retested, which would be a key area. Fail the June high as well and we may see the bottom at $1,700 retested, I will look for shorts if we fail this break-out again.

However, I am more leaning towards the idea we won’t break back into the range. I think ETHBTC will give us a run for our money, as long as it can hold here and not break back down.

A very sweet setup may it pan out is once we hit the $3,930 area, the last point of resistance before the all-time high in my opinion, I would be open to shorting back down, as far as the June high IF we see weakness.

I would want to see a resistance area > false break above > deviation back below and continuation lower on the LTF — then I will short.

Ripple

XRPUSD 4h

I expect XRP to produce all-time highs sooner rather than later, perhaps similar to what Cardano has done recently.

Thus I’d look to play a margin swing all the way to the top of the range. If we then get a break-out > confirmation I will enter with a new setup, but to be clear, I am simply targeting inner-range liquidity here.

Entries are marked, I would potentially short, but as of now I don’t see it as a likely scenario. Invalidation would be a soft stop with an invalidation of the break-out or reclaim level, whichever one (and naturally, a hard stop a safe distance away).

Targets are $1.55 and $1.80, respectively.

Chromia

CHRUSD 4h

Chromia has paid me well in the past. I very much rode that initial wave up with a hefty amount, so I’m grateful. My intent isn’t to give it back thus I am shy here and want a solid confirmation of a reversal of this dip.

I marked the arrow, if we reclaim $0.46, I would look to long all the way into the all-time high. Another plus is that would give me a fairly tight invalidation. I have currently marked out $0.36 as my invalidation, but I will use the new low that will be made around $0.42 as my invalidation instead.

The reason why I expect a new all-time high as well is because this is looking like a fresh break-out toward new skies on the monthly (see chart).

Just wanted to throw a couple of my setups out there. Next week more, lads and lasses.

Good luck, don’t lose money, and don’t sue me if you do.

Entertainment, not investment advice.

Cyril

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Cyril Cox

crypto trades — coffee & markets — risk management